Mirae Asset Sees Indonesia’s Stock Index Climbing to 10,500 in 2026 After Record Start

JAKARTA, Investortrust.id — Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia projects Indonesia’s benchmark stock index will climb to 10,500 in 2026 after the market opened the year with a string of record highs, signaling investor confidence despite lingering global and domestic headwinds. The forecast reflects expectations of stronger economic growth and the potential for more coordinated monetary and fiscal policy.

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) surged again on Wednesday, Jan 14, 2026, rising nearly 1 percent to an intraday all time high above 9,030 during midday trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The index had already notched multiple records earlier in January, including a closing high of 8,944.8 on Jan 7.

Rully Arya Wisnubroto, chief economist and head of research at Mirae Asset, said the rally extended momentum from late 2025 even as macroeconomic data at home remained mixed. He pointed to elevated December inflation, a narrower trade surplus, and a widening fiscal deficit driven by still weak government revenue.

“The strengthening of the index at the start of 2026 is happening amid data that are not particularly encouraging,” Rully said. “Yet the market is looking ahead rather than backward.”

External pressures have also weighed on sentiment, with a global risk off mood pushing the US dollar index higher and pressuring emerging market currencies. The rupiah weakened past Rp 16,800 per dollar for the first time since April 2025, narrowing room for near term monetary easing.

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Against that backdrop, Rully said Bank Indonesia was likely to remain cautious at its policy meeting on Jan 20 to 21. High inflation combined with currency weakness left little space for rate cuts in the short term, he said.

“In the near term, monetary policy will be very careful,” Rully said. “But the equity market continues to move higher because investors see better economic prospects ahead, especially if monetary and fiscal policy can be aligned.”

Mirae Asset expects Indonesia’s economic growth to accelerate to about 5.3 percent in 2026 from roughly 5.1 percent in 2025. That momentum, Rully said, would depend heavily on the effectiveness of fiscal policy in supporting productive spending and sustaining domestic demand.

“Policy alignment is one of the key factors behind the 10,500 index target,” he said. “If liquidity is maintained and fiscal stimulus runs effectively, the market will stand on a much stronger foundation.”

Sectorally, the rally since the start of the year has been driven largely by commodities and mining stocks, including names linked to gold and energy, as investors sought hedges against geopolitical uncertainty. Shares in telecommunications and related infrastructure have also gained traction, supported by digital economy growth and continued network investment needs.

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On Wednesday’s session alone, gains were broad based, with infrastructure, consumer staples, industrials, energy, and basic materials all posting solid advances. Big capitalization stocks helped propel the index higher, while speculative interest pushed several smaller names sharply up the board.

Foreign investors have also returned to the market after bouts of selling last year. On the previous trading day, overseas funds recorded net purchases of nearly Rp 2 trillion, reinforcing the sense that global investors are selectively rebuilding exposure to Indonesian equities.

In the longer run, Mirae Asset said policy consistency and clearer economic direction would be crucial to maintaining investor trust. If those conditions are met, the firm expects Indonesia’s equity market to remain on a bullish path through 2026, even as volatility persists in global financial markets.